What’s Driving FMCG Growth?

The macro trends and strongest sectors

Spend on take-home FMCG in Thailand has rebounded significantly in the last two years, shifting from a decline of -4.3% in 2022 and -2.1% in 2023 to growth of 3.3% in 2024. Recovery from COVID-19 is clearly evident.Facial beauty and food categories are responsible for most of this growth; together they account for 40% of total FMCG spend.According to the International Monetary Fund and National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailand’s GDP expanded by between 2.8% and 3% in 2024. This was largely due to the continuity of domestic demand, an increase in government support, and the recovery of tourism: the number of overseas visitors reached 35 million in 2024, compared to the pre-COVID high of 40 million.Although the introduction of digital wallets have had a lower-than-expected impact on the overall economy, the direct payment of 10,000 baht to welfare cardholders – which was spent on essential goods in FMCG categories – continues to stimulate improvement. This is evident in the clear growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year.While these factors are likely to continue to boost the economy through 2025, there are also risks to watch out for – including geopolitical conflict, high levels of household and business debt, and fluctuating agricultural products and prices.