Predictions for the remainder
of the year

01
The inflation
headwind returns

Brand growth is about to face its sternest test since 2022. With inflation showing renewed upward momentum across key markets, we predict 2025 will see fewer than 50% of brands achieving growth for the first time since the post-pandemic correction.

Under pressure, consumer behaviour follows patterns we've seen before. Economic history makes that plain. When households tighten their belts, brand loyalty becomes a luxury many can't afford. The 43% growth rate we witnessed in 2022 during peak inflation may well prove to be a preview of what's coming.

For brand managers, this means recalibrating expectations now. The 50:50 game is about to become a 45:55 proposition, and only those who adapt their strategies accordingly will avoid being caught off guard.

02
The penetration
imperative
intensifies

When consumers become price-sensitive, the rules of growth are the difference between holding ground and losing it. We expect that penetration-led growth will become disproportionately critical in 2025, just as it did during the 2022 inflation spike.

The 1.6 percentage point average penetration gain we've seen over the past five years will likely increase to 1.8 percentage points or higher.

Brands that haven't yet mastered the mechanics of shopper recruitment will find 2025 unforgiving. The mathematics suggest that economic pressure separates those that are strategically disciplined from the rest.

03
We already
know who will win

The biggest global penetration gain in 2025 will come from one of the Top 10 penetration winners of 2024, and at least five of the top penetration winners will emerge from this same elite group.

History supports this forecast. Success breeds success, and in challenging years this fundamental truth becomes more pronounced. The current Top 10 shopper recruiters are best-positioned for growth.

The question isn't whether this year will be challenging, but whether your brand is prepared for penetration-led growth.

This year will be challenging. Penetration-led growth depends on applying the fundamentals with precision across every marketing decision. Every sales target is a predictable penetration target, and this makes knowing more about your non-buyers the single most important element of marketing.

This isn't theoretical. To follow a penetration-led growth path in 2025's challenging environment, you need to answer these questions:

Are you measuring and reviewing with the right category lenses and cadence?
Do you know how many non-buyers you need to attract to meet your sales target?
Are you investing enough to reach and attract them?
Do you know what you need to do to attract today's harder-to-reach non-buyers?
Do you understand every usage occasion – and can you identify which new spaces offer the greatest opportunity?
Do you know who is responding to every piece of marketing activity?
Do you have a category and brand story, based on real shopper behaviour and trends, to convince retail partners to give you greater support?

These questions belong at the heart of every marketing decision — starting now. In an inflationary environment, the brands that can answer them will be the ones writing the growth stories of tomorrow.

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