The 50:50 game

But it’s a 60:40 game
in Latam

Analysing 13 years of global Brand Footprint data has revealed a pattern that repeats time and time again. Year after year, around half of the world’s FMCG brands increase their footprint, while the other half shrink. Mathematically speaking, this means that any given brand faces on average a 50% chance of growth, and a 50% chance of decline.

The 50:50 ratio has consistently played out in our global ranking since 2012. However, this year Latin America is bucking that trend – and it’s the only region to do so.

The 60:40 split
Following strong growth last year, when 52% of Latin American brands increased their CRPs, the majority – 61% – are now declining. The average decline is also steeper than the average uplift: the region’s growing brands have increased their CRPs by 8%, while those losing reach have seen a decrease of 10%.

This performance contrasts starkly with Asia, where 56% of brands are in growth, as well as the US (57%), Europe (52%), and Africa and the Middle East (48%).

It also illustrates how dramatically local market trends can change from one year to the next, reshaping the competitive landscape as they change. It’s more important than ever that brands have a sound understanding of their market's trajectory, and the growth environment they’re operating in.

So why has it become more difficult for brands to grow – or even sustain – their footprint in Latin America? We’ll take a detailed look at the key factors influencing consumer behaviour in the next chapter, but there are two dominant drivers that need to be recognised.

Fewer choices, less loyalty
FMCG price increases in Latam remain substantial – up 28% over the past two years, according to Worldpanel by Numerator’s Consumer Insights 2025 data. In response, shoppers are making fewer trips to stores, while buying more units and larger packs per trip. Lower purchase frequency translates into fewer brand choices being made – and therefore fewer opportunities to be bought. This reality is consistent across the region.

As a result, whereas most brands in this year’s Brand Footprint ranking have increased their value sales, half of them are being chosen fewer times, leading to a drop in CRPs.

Is your brand growing or declining?

In addition, consumers are reprioritising what they choose to put into their FMCG baskets, as they deal with persistent inflation and fluctuating prices. Rather than completely dropping categories, they’re making trade-offs to achieve a balance between managing their budgets and not giving up the items they love. This willingness to switch brands makes it harder to repeatedly capture choices.

Reprioritisation has also led to the simultaneous growth of premium brands and cheaper private label brands while mid-tier – or mainstream – brands have lost share.

Shifting the odds
Being on the winning side of the equation – whether it’s 50:50, or 60:40 – doesn’t have to be a game of chance. The most successful brands manage to improve the odds, by proactively and strategically moving the probabilities in their favour.

Understanding consumers’ choices, prioritisation strategies and level of financial comfort will all help brands to figure out how to remain relevant in the decisions they make.

Turning back to our 13 years of global Brand Footprint data, our analysis reveals one factor that plays a greater role in shifting the odds than any other: increased penetration. Since 2012, the brands that have recruited the most new shoppers have achieved the strongest growth.