We have quantified three potential scenarios for each market.
What does the rest of 2020 have in store? We have quantified three different potential scenarios, based on the OOH performance we’ve seen in the year to date.
1. The OOH market will rebound – with value sales returning to the same level as 2019 for the remaining months of 2020.
2. The OOH market will recover slowly – with the performance we’ve witnessed during July and August replicated across the remaining months of 2020 .
3. The OOH market will be negatively impacted by further lockdown restrictions – based on the possibility of a second lockdown slowing the pace of recovery for the remainder of 2020.
Even if OOH rebounds, an overall year-on-year decline in combined spend with In-Home is already forecast for all markets except for Indonesia. At the time of writing Europe is currently experiencing a second COVID-19 outbreak, with increased restrictions already in place, so the most likely scenario is the third one.
In the UK, even before the November lockdown, all establishments had to close by 10 pm. The potential impact of this was a reduction in OOH spend of approximately 12% per day. But with the full lockdown now in place, it is even more likely that OOH will see at least 40% decline by the end of 2020 in the UK. The question will be what closing time restrictions will be implemented as restrictions begin to ease to help claw back some of this lost spend.
