Immigration: Thinking Behind the Numbers, Understanding Public Opinion on Immigration in Britain

Introduction and Summary

Introduction

In the first half of 2023, immigration in Britain has never been far from the headlines. In January the Prime Minister announced his five priorities for the year which included a pledge to ‘stop the boats’ and in March tweets by Gary Lineker ignited a debate on the language used by politicians and the media about immigration. Meanwhile, overall immigration levels have increased substantially. But the migration debate is complex, and migrants come to Britain for many different reasons. Behind the headline figures, attitudes towards different types of migration and different policy options are likely to be nuanced. To understand that nuance, in April 2023 Kantar Public and the Migration Observatory conducted a snap-poll to answer the question: what do the British public really think about immigration? In 2011 the Migration Observatory first completed research and analysis known as ‘Thinking Behind the Numbers’^[i], and together we have largely replicated this approach again in 2023. Some questions have been revised or added to account for the changing policy landscape over the last twelve years. In this report we revisit some of those initial findings and how public perceptions and attitudes have changed today (April 2023).

To truly think behind the numbers once again, our analysis explores findings from a representative 2,300 strong sample of the British public aged over 18 to assess:

How the British public perceives immigration and immigrants;
How public perspectives on immigration have shifted;
How immigration ranks as a priority policy area to the British public.

Summary: The thinking behind the numbers on public attitudes to immigration

Current public attitudes to immigration are defined as ‘cake-ism’ where the public’s desire for an increase in the immigration of ‘high-skilled’ workers and ‘workers in jobs where there are shortages’ clashes with a continued long-standing desire to reduce the overall numbers of immigrants coming to Britain.

1. The British Public’s Perception of Immigration and Immigrants

The public is divided into thirds on their perception of immigration to Britain, but these perceptions are politically divided. Those who said they voted Conservative at the last election are much more likely to view immigration to Britain negatively.
Public perceptions of the typical immigrant contrast with the reality of stocks and flows of immigration in Britain. The public is most likely to view immigrants as people coming to Britain to apply for refugee status and as people who come permanently. The typical immigrant is also viewed as having come from Eastern Europe or South Asia, which is reflective of existing non-UK born populations.

2. The British public’s attitude towards immigration levels and prospective changes

The public favours a reduction in irregular immigration for all reasons, but particularly of immigrants coming to apply for refugee status (asylum seekers). Regular immigration is broadly supported by the public.
Immigrants who are ‘high-skilled’ workers or ‘workers in jobs where there are shortages’ are highly desired by the public, in contrast to a general desire among the public to reduce overall immigration numbers.
While there is little desire for ‘low-skilled’ immigration, some occupations traditionally regarded as ‘low-skilled’ such as care workers are viewed favourably by the public.

3. The Extent to Which the British Public View Immigration as a Policy Priority

Whilst not of high relative importance to the British public as a whole, immigration is very important for a sizeable proportion. It is more important to members of the public who are older, read printed newspapers and who have a negative perception of immigration to Britain.