The impact of COVID-19 on interpersonal conflict in Kenya
Alexandra Cronberg, Research Methodologist and Rhoune Ochako, Country Director - Kenya, Kantar Public
Beyond the immediate health and economic impacts, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant effect on community mental health and wellbeing. In this article, Alexandra Cronberg and Rhoune Ochako discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the level of interpersonal conflict and domestic violence in Kenya. Based on results from three waves of our PUBLIC Voice study in Kenya, as well as data on infection rates and the stringency of the government’s restrictions, they discuss potential factors driving increased level of conflict and violence, and suggest recommendations for future policies.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant guidelines and restrictions by the Kenyan government to contain the spread of the virus, have put a strain on families and individuals in many ways, and to varying degrees. These temporary measures have led to negative financial impacts, lockdowns and curfews curtailing individual freedoms, fear and uncertainty about the virus – and of course, health implications for all those who caught the disease, at worst resulting in death.
Evidence now suggests that the level of conflict and violence within households has increased, resulting in a ‘shadow pandemic’, while the battle against the coronavirus has raged outside.
But what do we actually know about the factors which have had the strongest influence on the levels of interpersonal conflict and violence? Is it triggered by anxiety relating to financial constraints, health-related fears and implications, or by the government’s restrictions on movement? Or are they all equally important?
The PUBLIC Voice research conducted by Kantar Public seeks to answer these questions by looking at interpersonal conflict and violence at different points during the pandemic.
Our study shows that in May 2020, during the early stages of the pandemic, 40% of adults in Kenya had experienced an increased level of conflict with people within their household, with 35% reporting conflict that involved physical violence.
As the pandemic and related restrictions continued, the level of increased conflict jumped to an alarming 69% in August 2020, with 62% stating they had experienced violent conflict. In May 2021 however, we saw the figures drop back down to levels similar to those of a year earlier: 39 % reported increased levels of conflict and 35% reported conflict involving physical violence.
Overlaying these findings with infection rates from Our World in Data (Figure 1), we can see that the large increase in experiences of conflict and violence coincides with the first peak of the pandemic in Kenya.
But, there is no subsequent correlation with the bigger spike in COVID-19 cases in the Spring of 2021.
So there is no clear relation between the level of domestic conflict and violence and the severity of the pandemic.
But the question remains as to whether the uncertainty and fear surrounding what was a brand new virus in the earlier months of 2020, contributed to anxieties that fuelled these peak levels of interpersonal conflict.
Figure 1: Progression of COVID-19 infection rates in Kenya, and % of people reporting increased level of conflict and conflicts involving physical violence between May 2020 - May 2021
Sources: Our World in Data, and PUBLIC Voice study by Kantar Public
Turning now to the stringency of lockdown restrictions based on an index developed by Our World in Data, it does not appear that the experience of increased levels of conflict bear much of a correlation with the government’s policies. This might be due to the fact that people were adhering to the rules and restrictions in a more relaxed manner as the pandemic progressed, or because the curfews and restrictions on social gatherings never had that much of an impact on people’s interpersonal relationships in the first place.
The stringency index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school and workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled from a value of 0 to 100 (100 = strictest), if policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown at the response level of the strictest sub-region.
Figure 2: Stringency index for Kenya
Source: Our World in Data
So if the severity of the pandemic and the wider national context have a limited impact on levels interpersonal conflict and violence, let’s now turn our attention to personal factors such as individuals’ concern about health, their financial situation, and their children’s education and wellbeing, which we captured in the different waves of PUBLIC Voice. In May 2020, people with more uncertain sources of income, such as the self-employed and casual workers, generally reported a higher level of conflict and violence in their homes compared to other groups.
For example, 47% of self-employed and 43% of casual workers reported an increased level of conflict, compared to 35-37% among farmers and salaried employees.
This might be due to the strain that comes with uncertainty and precarious working conditions, especially when the pandemic first hit.
A similar difference by main source of income was apparent a few months later in August 2020. However, data from May 2021 indicated that there was no longer any substantial difference in the experience of increased conflict by main income source.
It is also worth noting that the proportion of adults who reported a decrease in income in the preceding month has remained broadly constant across the three time points (Figure 3). In this light, income loss does not appear to be correlated with the experience of conflict per se.
Figure 3: % of people reporting decreased income, and increased level of conflict and conflicts involving physical violence between May 2020 - May 2021
Source: PUBLIC Voice study by Kantar Public
In the August 2020 wave of our study, we asked specifically about levels of concern relating to a range of issues:
Our findings show that adults who were ‘very worried’ about their children’s education and wellbeing, and who had financial, and/or health concerns, were noticeably more likely to experience a greater increase in conflict levels, compared to adults who were less concerned about these matters. For example, 77% of adults who were ‘very worried’ about their children’s education, reported more conflict in the preceding two months, compared to 58% among those who were ‘not at all worried’. Adults who were very worried about one of the aspects above were generally also very worried about one or more of the other aspects too.
Given these findings, it is clear that adults who were very worried about their children’s education and wellbeing, financial affairs, and/or health, were noticeably more likely to experience an increase in conflict.
The decrease in conflict and violence reported in the latest wave of our PUBLIC Voice study (although still at a high level), is good news. However, the implication is that the peak of violence occurs early on in a pandemic or national crisis. Furthermore, it is evident that the heightened levels of conflict and violence are related to personal factors, such as uncertainty and loss of income, and general levels of worry and concern.
It is well-known from neuroscience that worry triggers the stress ‘fight or flight’ response in humans, which is likely to be underpinning the observed trend.
This finding underlines the importance for public authorities to regularly monitor and anticipate these trends early on in a pandemic or national crisis – considering these threats within the household as critical as well as those external threats – and to implement policies and services to support vulnerable communities who will be more at risk.
Another critical factor is investing in community-based mental health and wellbeing services to counteract the negative impacts of anxiety and make such resources available early on when they are needed the most.
