Climate change and social cohesion

How can they work together?

Climate change and social cohesion: How can they work together?

by Oliver Sartorius, Director and Christoph Döbele, Senior Consultant – Kantar Public, Germany

In summer 2021, climate change manifested itself in multiple extreme weather phenomena across the world - from record heat on the Pacific coast of North America, and uncontrollable forest fires in Mediterranean countries, to torrential rain and severe flooding in parts of Central Europe and China. The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is alarming: the consequences of climate change are becoming one of the major challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. ¹In addition, other escalating crises – including the Coronavirus pandemic, migration pressures, financial crashes, economic crises, and the increasing polarisation of Western democracies – all point to the fact that politics must become more sustainable and societies more resilient in the future. Alongside competent institutions and economic strength, social cohesion is one of the key factors underpinning a resilient society.

Hence, the question arises: How can the transformational economic and social challenges posed by climate change be overcome without damaging social cohesion? In this article, Oliver Sartorius and Christoph Döbele from Kantar Public Germany address this question, drawing on a study conducted in partnership with More in Common, an international and non-partisan organisation that deals with the issue of social cohesion. ²

Six core segments defining German society’s values and attitudes

In order to better understand the attitudes and expectations of the German population towards climate change, and analyse them in an action-oriented way, More in Common uses a systematic frame of reference which builds on an existing proprietary segmentation. Based on social psychology, the segmentation divides German society into six types with their views of society characterised by personal values and core beliefs:³

The Open (16%): self-development, openness to the world, critical thinking.

The Involved (17%): civic-mindedness, togetherness, defence of achievements.

The Established (17%): satisfaction, reliability, social peace.

The Detached (16%): success, private advancement, control before trust.

The Disillusioned (14%): (lost) community, (lack of) esteem, justice.

The Angry (19%): national order, system scolding, mistrust.

Source: More in Common (2019): Fault Lines: Germany’s Invisible Divides. p.7.

The importance of climate action relative to other challenges

German citizens consider climate change to be one of the biggest societal challenges today: four out of five Germans (80%) are personally concerned about climate change.⁴Even amongst the Angry – a segment characterised by a particular aversion to progressive social change – most people (61%) recognise the importance of the issue.The climate challenge is also seen as urgent. About two thirds of German citizens (65%) are already experiencing the consequences of climate change: an assessment shared by the majority of all six segments. The view that the effects of climate change will not be felt at all, is held by just 3% of respondents.

However, despite the acknowledged importance and urgency, only three of the six population segments (the Open, Involved and Established) consider action on climate change to be the highest priority for political action.Other rank social and economic matters as equally or more important.The fears and anxieties associated with the anticipated impacts of climate change are currently still more systemic and less immediate to the individual: concerns about nature (biodiversity, the state of landscapes, and the oceans) dominate.Human-related fears are mainly externalised geographically (the situation of people in poorer countries) or temporally (the living conditions of future generations).

Many people in Germany are currently trapped between their urgent desire for climate protection and their feeling helpless and overwhelmed as individual consumers. They expect politics and “big actors” to do their share, ensuring collective climate action that commits all levels of society.

Jérémie Gagné, More in Common

When it comes to the reality of their own lives, people’s concerns are somewhat less dramatic. Nevertheless, the country’s economic development, people’s health and the effects on personal living conditions, are of concern to more than two thirds of German people.

"Summers with temperatures of 43C did not exist a few years ago. That's when the issue of global warming is most noticeable."

- ('Detached’ focus group respondent)

Overall, there is a strong general consensus that the impacts of climate change are real and worrying, and that appropriate action is needed.

Perceptions of individual responsibility vs collective action on climate change

Four out of five Germans (80%) see climate protection as an area that fundamentally concerns everyone, with 75% also agreeing that one's personal behaviour can make a difference. Both views are shared - to a greater or lesser extent - by a majority in all six segments of the population.This goes hand in hand with people’s perception that they themselves are already showing great commitment to protecting the environment and climate. The belief in the necessity for (individual) change and the willingness to act, is therefore clearly applicable for the large majority of German society.At the same time, climate change tends to evoke feelings of powerlessness: at an individual level, people can feel helpless (45%), sometimes fearful. This issue can also evoke disappointment and anger, expressed retrospectively in particular with regards to insufficient climate action to date.Almost all actors are considered to be doing too little for climate protection: this is especially true in relation to businesses (70%), government and public institutions (EU Commission: 62%; Federal Government: 66%), and municipalities (51%), as well as other citizens (58%) and often even "people like me" (47%).There is a clear discrepancy between people’s own stated (individual) willingness to act on climate protection and the perceived (in)action of most others.

"As a consumer, I see myself more on the losing side because I always think that due to lobbying [...] companies, especially big companies, always have the upper hand and can have a say in what happens, which measures are implemented, or which are perhaps suppressed, in order to put their own interests first."

- (‘Open’ focus group respondent).

The perceived gap between individual efforts and a collective solution is further reinforced by the international context. The climate issue is seen as solvable only through a global effort; yet not all countries are perceived to be equally committed.

The tone of the climate change debateThis sense of a lack of collective effort in climate policy is reinforced by the perception of the public discourse: the majority of German people consider the narrative as divisive (80%), detached (65%) and subjective (53%).This is especially true for the Disillusioned and Angry segments, who perceive the discourse by far the most negatively.Specifically, there is a strong fear that additional efforts in climate protection could widen the gap between rich and poor people within society.Furthermore, German people are undecided on the question of whether stronger measures to tackle climate change would have a positive or negative impact on social cohesion.

Figure 2: Perception of the public climate debate

Source: More in Common (2021): Einend oder spaltend? Klimaschutz und gesellschaftlicher Zusammenhalt in Deutschland. p.38.

Expectations and perceptions of political action on climate changeA clear majority of Germans (57%) believe that people are already far more receptive to action on climate change than politicians assume. Only the Angry and the Disillusioned segments are more often of the view that politicians are discussing measures for which people are not yet ready.The expectations for a proactive policy approach therefore clash uncomfortably with the perception shared by most Germans, that the government’s current climate policy is haphazard, unfair and ineffective. In the eyes of the population, the German government has also lost its former pioneering role in climate protection and is now lagging behind other countries. In terms of expectations therefore, there is a gulf between claims being made, and the perceived reality.

57% believe that people are already far more receptive to action on climate change than politicians assume.

"What [government action] is possible [...] is what we saw with the banking crisis and what we see now with Corona. Things are being done that none of us could have even imagined a year ago. And how seriously is climate protection taken in comparison? It's ridiculous!"

- (‘Involved’ focus group respondent)

Whilst a majority (59%) say that they consider it necessary in principle to change their own habits and lifestyles, two thirds of respondents (66%) assert that politicians should provide a binding framework to impose robust structures and direct behaviour - not least so that others also do enough to protect the climate.However, although there is broad agreement on the objectives, when it comes to the design of concrete measures, apparent contradictions in views are revealed:

Above all, the economy should contribute to climate protection with CO2 emissions more heavily taxed (52%); but no existing jobs should be lost (88%)

Citizens should be involved in decisions that affect them locally (88%); but decisions should be agreed and enforced as much as possible at European level (80%)

In concrete terms, many would like to see free public transport (84%); but an overwhelming majority expects there to be no additional fiscal burdens (85%)

In this respect, it is not surprising that policy narratives of renunciation or imposition carry the potential for social division. The less progressive segments of Disillusioned and Angry react here with particular reticence, up to open rejection.Emphasising the opportunities of climate policy - such as new jobs with a secure future - therefore seems a more promising approach. Measures that strengthen the common good alongside protecting the planet, also coincide with the wishes of a large section of the population. These are likely to frame climate policy as positive and attractive.

Measures that strengthen the common good alongside protecting the planet, also coincide with the wishes of a large section of the population.

Recommendations for actionUltimately, climate change can only be successfully tackled in democratically organised communities, if a broad social consensus can be established.Building on the study findings, More in Common offers these initial instructive hints for the different actors involved:

Citizens should feel confident to talk about climate protection in their private sphere, but without lapsing into potentially divisive debates around individual lifestyle issues.

Climate policy should strengthen community cohesion by creating shared incentives, common infrastructures, and collective wins in areas like education, healthcare and public transport.

Civil society groups should be more responsive and proactive in relation to those segments of the population that have a wait-and-see or sceptical attitude towards the climate movement.

References and notes

1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2. The entire study (in German) is available here.

3. Further information (in German and English) can be found here.

4. The outstanding importance of climate protection from the point of view of the population - even in times of a global pandemic - was already measured by the Special Eurobarometer 513. See European Commission (2021): Special Eurobarometer 513 – Climate Change. p.11.