A walk down the memory lane:
Tet 2025 and the path to 2026
The start of 2025 inherited a seemingly bright economic picture from 2024, with Vietnam’s GDP exceeding the government's GDP target. This resilience was initially reflected in high consumer confidence at the end of 2024, signalling optimism for a positive and prosperous festive season. At the end of 2024, 1 out of 5 households said they struggled to make ends meet, though this figure was an improvement compared to the pre-Tet period in 2023.
This suggested that while the macro-economy was robust, the feeling on the ground for many families remained one of cautious optimism. The situation was further complicated by several major domestic and global factors at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025 that introduced significant uncertainty into the consumer mindset:
Typhoon Yagi's damage: The severe damage caused by Typhoon Yagi (late Q3/early Q4 2024), particularly in Northern Vietnam, the caused dampened consumer sentiment. The recurrence of annual typhoons introduces significant volatility, which may lead to a short-term shift in purchase priorities and a longer-term focus on recovery, especially for rural households facing livelihood loss.
Information about a major government restructuring: News about the Vietnamese government's administrative restructuring at the end of 2024 raised concerns among some consumers about job security and administrative disruption, which can translate into reserved spending.
Global volatility: Persistent global trade volatility emerged in the beginning of 2025 as a key external risk, adding to the sense of an uncertain future.
In recent years, external and internal pressures have heightened consumer sensitivity to news, causing sentiment to fluctuate with greater volatility over shorter periods.
As of Q3 of 2025, worries about household income remained elevated compared to last year, compounded by rising worries about health, food safety, and worries of unusual movements of typhoons mounting at the end of the year. Furthermore, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains controlled, it is reaching a ten-year high. This new reality is forcing consumers to spend more selectively and deliberately.
Given the greater year-round fluctuation in consumer sentiment, spending power for Tet 2026 will be less predictable, hinging heavily on socio-economic factors and consumers' perceived financial assessment at year-end. For a successful Tet 2026, manufacturers and retailers must closely monitor consumer sentiment and and rapidly adapt messaging and offerings to align with evolving priorities.
