Battle of the bites
Navigating the new normal of nosh
So how are these inflation-inflicted habits impacting meal consumption in this post-pandemic world? It’s an intriguing tale. In the United Kingdom, meal occasions took flight, soaring from 48 in 2021 to an impressive 75 in 2023. Mainland China, renowned for its tech-savvy market of delivery app options, mirrored this trend, witnessing a surge from 89 to 118. Of course, the grip of inflation has not found Mainland China the way it has most other countries in the last couple of years.
As we navigate this culinary landscape, we encounter a growing tension between dining out and ordering in for meal deliveries. How do we strike a balance between the two, preserving the joys of in-person dining while embracing the convenience of home delivery?
Meal delivery continues to evolve in intriguing ways, reshaping consumers' dining habits and preferences. Meal delivery is increasingly less about replicating the dining out experience; instead, it has become a means to skip cooking and enjoy restaurant-quality food at home.
Meal delivery continues to evolve in intriguing ways, reshaping consumers' dining habits and preferences.
One consistent trend is the consolidation of meal delivery habits after the initial boost triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. While the world gradually returns to normalcy, all countries measured are growing in consumer frequency (occasions) compared to the pre-pandemic situation. But the channel balance has changed. Some of the shifts are particularly clear in Europe, where Gen Z and Gen Y are leading the charge on meal deliveries. Gen Y, in particular, indexes at 160 in Europe compared to 105 in other regions. In contrast, Baby Boomers in Europe index at 60, while in other regions, it's 95.
The core moments for meal delivery also vary across demographics. Weekend dinners continue to be the favoured occasion, especially among Gen X. However, Boomers show a preference for weekend lunch deliveries. In contrast, Gen Z is at the forefront of avoiding the kitchen for midweek dinner deliveries. Convenience emerges as a core reason to order across all demographics, with 24% of global consumers citing that they "can't be bothered" to cook, a percentage that has risen by 1.8% since 2021. Other popular reasons include considering meal delivery as a treat or reward and preferring to stay home rather than dine in a restaurant.
To go deeper into the shift, we look to the dining scenes of Spain, France, and Great Britain where see calculated shifts in spending behaviour. We followed the money and found a 20% decrease in spending in value terms away from the broader Foodservice market could be attributed to people opting to cook at home. A further 29% of the spending shift is going toward consumers collecting freshly prepared meals themselves. Most strikingly, 51% of the spending shift is funnelled back into on-premise dining.
But what is ahead? As we looked to 2030, our forecast suggests that meal delivery will command 12% of the total spending in value terms, a rise from 8% in 2023. Quick Service Restaurants are also projected to benefit, with their spending value predicted to shift from 21% to 32%. Adding an extra layer of complexity, QSRs are anticipated to grow their own delivery services, moving from 26% to 30% in spending value.
The implications are far-reaching, signalling a broader transformation that isn't solely about what's on the plate but how it gets there. However, this narrative is not without its tensions. Traditional restaurants and eateries face the challenge of maintaining their culinary integrity in a marketplace increasingly skewed toward speed and convenience.
Meanwhile, a fascinating fast-food trend has emerged in the battle for share of stomach. It appears the pandemic successfully democratised burgers. All those months looking for alternatives to the ubiquitous pizza may be paying off for the burger industry. Why do we think this? Because burgers are steadily outpacing pizzas everywhere, except for Mexico, where pizzas maintain their strong presence. This shift underscores evolving consumer preferences in the QSR market, but it is also a coping mechanism balancing out inflation. On average, burgers cost half that of pizzas.
Amidst these dynamics, we are in no doubt meal delivery is undergoing a transformative journey. However, the delivery players may need to continue opening up options with broader, cheaper menu offerings to boost the frequency of delivery occasions.
We are in no doubt that consumers worldwide are embracing convenience, and businesses are innovating to meet evolving preferences. As the culinary landscape continues to evolve, these nuanced shifts will continue to play out at pace and meal delivery, collection, and on-premise dining will all play a part.
